The aviation industry sees Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) as one of the most important tools for achieving net-zero emissions by 2050. However, a publications released by ALTA in collaboration with ICF argues that the pace of SAF deployment in Latin America and the Caribbean must reflect the region’s economic realities if connectivity is to be preserved.
According to the report, SAF will play a crucial long-term role in reducing aviation emissions. Yet the industry association warns that high costs, limited availability and significant investment requirements could create unintended consequences for airlines, passengers and regional economies.
A critical decarbonization tool that remains difficult to scale
ALTA’s analysis recognizes SAF as one of the most promising pathways toward aviation decarbonization. The fuel has the potential to address a substantial share of future emissions while allowing airlines to continue operating existing aircraft fleets and infrastructure.
However, the report notes that SAF adoption remains extremely limited worldwide. Current SAF use accounts for less than 1% of global aviation fuel consumption, illustrating the scale of the challenge facing the industry.
The study also estimates that achieving the necessary transition would require between USD 224 billion and USD 284 billion in government-supported investment measures, highlighting the magnitude of the financial effort needed to accelerate production and deployment.
The affordability challenge for a price-sensitive market
One of the central messages of the report is that Latin America and the Caribbean remain significantly more price-sensitive than many mature aviation markets.
ALTA argues that a rapid SAF rollout without sufficient enabling conditions could increase airline operating costs and ultimately affect passenger demand. The study estimates that SAF-related costs could remain between three and twelve times higher than conventional jet fuel under certain scenarios.
For passengers, this could translate into an additional cost of approximately USD 43 per seat. In a region where air travel demand is still developing and affordability remains a key factor, the association warns that higher fares could have a measurable impact on traffic growth.
Potential consequences for connectivity
The report goes beyond fuel economics and examines the broader implications for regional connectivity.
According to ALTA’s modelling, accelerated decarbonization pathways that rely heavily on SAF without addressing supply and cost challenges could reduce passenger demand by as much as 30%. The study also points to a potential economic impact estimated at USD 156 million under certain scenarios.
For a region where many communities, island destinations and tourism-dependent economies rely heavily on air transport, the association argues that connectivity must remain a central consideration when designing decarbonization policies.
Why ALTA is calling for a tailored regional approach
Rather than questioning the importance of SAF, the report advocates a pragmatic pathway that reflects regional circumstances.
Latin America and the Caribbean share the aviation industry’s commitment to net-zero emissions by 2050. Yet ALTA argues that the region faces structural constraints that differ from those of North America or Europe, including more limited access to SAF, funding challenges and a greater dependence on aviation for economic development and territorial connectivity.
The study therefore concludes that SAF should remain a central pillar of the industry’s long-term strategy, but that deployment must be accompanied by supportive public policies, investment mechanisms and realistic implementation timelines.
Decarbonization without disconnection
The broader message emerging from the ALTA-ICF study is that reducing aviation emissions and preserving connectivity should not be treated as opposing objectives.
For the association, the challenge is not whether SAF should be part of the solution, but how the region can expand its use without undermining affordability, market growth and the connectivity that underpins tourism, trade and economic development across Latin America and the Caribbean.
