As Latin America’s aviation sector prepares for a long-term transition toward lower-carbon operations, one question is becoming increasingly important: where will the sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) needed to power that transition actually come from?
A new assessment by the MIT Center for Sustainability Science and Strategy (CS3) suggests the answer will not be evenly distributed across the region. While every country faces the same decarbonization challenge, their ability to produce SAF differs considerably depending on agricultural resources, production costs, industrial capacity and policy frameworks.
The result is the emergence of a new regional map—one in which some countries are positioned to become major SAF producers while others are likely to rely on imports or alternative production pathways.
Natural resources give Latin America a strategic advantage
Compared with many other parts of the world, Latin America enters the SAF race with significant structural advantages.
The region benefits from extensive agricultural production, favourable growing conditions and a wide range of feedstocks already used in biofuel industries. According to the MIT study, sugarcane-based ethanol-to-jet (ETJ), palm oil-based HEFA and soybean-based HEFA currently represent the most promising pathways for large-scale SAF production.
These existing value chains provide a foundation that many regions still need to build from scratch.
At the same time, the researchers caution that feedstock availability alone will not determine future competitiveness. Production economics, infrastructure, investment conditions and long-term policy certainty will ultimately decide where SAF capacity develops.
Brazil is emerging as the region’s industrial anchor
Among the six countries analysed, Brazil stands out as the clear frontrunner.
Its combination of large-scale sugarcane cultivation, soybean production, established biofuel expertise and relatively competitive production costs creates conditions unmatched elsewhere in the region.
The study estimates SAF production costs ranging from US$1.11 to US$1.77 per litre, the lowest among the countries assessed.
Supporting this production capacity would also require the largest industrial investment programme. MIT estimates that Brazil alone could account for approximately US$84 billion of the US$204 billion in cumulative capital investment needed for new SAF production facilities between 2025 and 2050.
These advantages extend beyond domestic demand. In scenarios allowing regional SAF trade, Brazil consistently emerges as one of Latin America’s principal future exporters.
A broader production network is beginning to take shape
Brazil, however, is not expected to carry the transition alone.
The report identifies Colombia, Ecuador and Peru as additional countries with competitive production potential, although for different reasons.
Colombia benefits from established palm oil and sugarcane industries capable of supporting relatively competitive SAF pathways. Ecuador combines favourable production costs with a domestic market small enough to create export opportunities under certain scenarios. Peru, despite a more modest aviation market, also demonstrates competitive production potential that could support regional supply before domestic demand expands further.
Each country follows a different development path, yet together they could form the backbone of a regional SAF production network.
Rather than concentrating supply in a single market, the study points towards a diversified production base spread across several Latin American economies.
Not every market is expected to become self-sufficient
The report also illustrates why national production targets do not necessarily represent the most efficient strategy.
Chile, despite its strong climate ambitions, faces relatively limited biomass availability compared with its neighbours. The country’s long-term opportunity may instead lie in power-to-liquid (PTL) synthetic fuels, supported by abundant renewable energy resources, particularly solar and wind.
Mexico presents a different picture. Although it possesses significant agricultural resources, it also has one of the region’s largest aviation markets. As demand grows, importing part of its SAF requirements may prove economically preferable to producing every litre domestically.
Under the regional trading scenarios modelled by MIT, Chile and Mexico become net SAF importers, while Brazil, Colombia, Ecuador and Peru supply part of regional demand.
The findings underline an important principle: competitiveness will depend less on political borders than on where feedstocks, technology and production economics align most effectively.
Feedstocks alone will not build a SAF industry
Natural resources may create opportunities, but they are only one part of the equation.
The report repeatedly emphasises that large-scale SAF deployment will depend on stable policy frameworks capable of attracting long-term private investment.
Producers require predictable regulations, clear sustainability criteria, financing mechanisms and confidence that future demand will justify multi-billion-dollar investments in new production facilities.
Without that policy certainty, Latin America’s agricultural advantages may never translate into industrial leadership.
Building an industry rather than a fuel market
The MIT assessment ultimately suggests that Latin America’s sustainable aviation fuel opportunity extends well beyond aviation fuel itself.
It represents the potential creation of an entirely new industrial ecosystem linking agriculture, energy production, refining, logistics, infrastructure and aviation.
Countries that succeed will not necessarily be those with the greatest biomass resources, but those able to combine competitive feedstocks with coherent regulation, investment certainty and long-term industrial planning.
As Latin America’s aviation transition gathers pace, the question is no longer simply whether the region can produce sustainable aviation fuel. It is which countries will become the foundations of a regional SAF economy—and how that emerging production landscape could reshape aviation across Latin America.
