Latin America’s aviation sector faces a defining challenge over the next quarter century. Passenger demand is expected to continue expanding as economies grow, tourism develops and air connectivity strengthens across the region. At the same time, the industry has committed to achieving net-zero carbon emissions by 2050, placing unprecedented pressure on governments, airlines, fuel producers and regulators to transform one of the world’s hardest-to-abate transport sectors.
A report from the MIT Center for Sustainability Science and Strategy (CS3) suggests that reconciling these two trajectories will require far more than simply increasing the use of sustainable aviation fuel (SAF). While SAF represents the most mature decarbonization pathway currently available, the researchers conclude that achieving meaningful emissions reductions will depend on a combination of technological progress, industrial investment, operational improvements and coordinated public policy across Latin America.
Aviation demand is expected to outpace emissions—but both continue to grow
The study projects that, under current policy trajectories, aviation demand across Latin America will more than triple between 2019 and 2050. Despite continued improvements in aircraft efficiency, total aviation carbon emissions would still roughly double over the same period.
This reflects a reality increasingly recognised throughout the industry. More efficient aircraft can slow emissions growth, but they cannot fully offset decades of expanding passenger demand, increasing flight frequencies and greater regional connectivity.
For Latin America, where aviation remains an essential driver of economic development, tourism and territorial integration, limiting demand is neither a realistic nor a desirable strategy. The challenge instead lies in decoupling growth from emissions without compromising the connectivity on which many national economies depend.
Sustainable aviation fuel becomes the cornerstone—but not the entire solution
Among all available decarbonization technologies, the report identifies sustainable aviation fuel as the most significant near-term opportunity for Latin America.
Unlike hydrogen or battery-electric propulsion, SAF can be used within today’s aircraft fleet and airport fuel infrastructure, allowing emissions reductions without fundamentally redesigning the aviation system. The region also benefits from favourable agricultural conditions that could support large-scale production using feedstocks such as sugarcane, soybean and palm oil.
Yet the report repeatedly cautions against viewing SAF as a standalone solution.
Even under its most ambitious scenario—where SAF supplies around 65% of aviation fuel demand by 2050—the sector would still require multiple complementary measures to move closer to net-zero emissions. Aircraft fleet renewal, operational efficiencies, improvements in air traffic management, alternative propulsion technologies, carbon removals and market-based mechanisms all remain essential components of the long-term transition.
In other words, decarbonizing aviation is not simply about replacing one fuel with another. It requires transforming the entire aviation ecosystem.
Policy choices will shape the pace of the transition
The MIT researchers model several policy pathways combining economy-wide climate measures with different levels of SAF deployment.
In the most ambitious scenario, aviation emissions in 2050 are projected to be approximately 60% lower than under current trends. Importantly, these reductions do not result from SAF alone. They reflect the combined effects of cleaner fuels, broader climate policies, more efficient aircraft and behavioural responses to changing energy prices.
The report also highlights the growing role of carbon pricing. Assuming economy-wide climate policies consistent with a 1.5°C pathway, carbon prices could reach US$200–250 per tonne of CO₂ by mid-century. Such levels would significantly increase the cost of conventional jet fuel and encourage lower-carbon alternatives, although they would also create new economic pressures for airlines and passengers.
This illustrates one of the central dilemmas facing policymakers. Stronger climate policies accelerate emissions reductions, but they also influence operating costs, ticket prices and, ultimately, aviation demand.
The transition extends well beyond the aviation sector
Perhaps the report’s most important conclusion is that aviation cannot decarbonize in isolation.
The future availability and affordability of SAF depend on developments in agriculture, energy production, refining capacity, hydrogen supply, carbon capture technologies and financial markets. Investment frameworks, long-term regulatory certainty and internationally recognised sustainability standards will all influence whether new SAF production facilities can be financed at scale.
The researchers estimate that building the SAF production capacity required under their most ambitious scenario would require around US$204 billion in cumulative capital investment across the six countries studied between 2025 and 2050. Such an industrial transformation extends well beyond airlines themselves and involves fuel producers, governments, infrastructure developers and private investors alike.
The report also argues that greater regional coordination will become increasingly important. Harmonised policies, common sustainability criteria and cross-border cooperation could improve competitiveness, strengthen supply chains and reduce the overall cost of decarbonization across Latin America.
Growth and decarbonization must advance together
The MIT assessment ultimately reinforces a message that is becoming increasingly clear across global aviation: achieving net zero will not depend on a single breakthrough technology.
For Latin America, sustainable aviation fuel will likely form the backbone of the transition over the coming decades. But its effectiveness will depend on the speed at which governments establish supportive regulatory frameworks, industry mobilises investment, infrastructure expands and complementary technologies mature.
As passenger demand continues to grow, the region’s challenge is no longer deciding whether aviation should decarbonize. It is determining how to build a transition that preserves connectivity while fundamentally reshaping the industry’s carbon footprint.
This is the first article in a LATITUDE15 series examining the MIT Center for Sustainability Science and Strategy’s assessment of aviation decarbonization pathways in Latin America. The next article will explore why Brazil is positioned to become the region’s leading sustainable aviation fuel producer and how the geography of future SAF production could reshape Latin America’s aviation industry.
