As the aviation industry searches for realistic pathways toward net-zero emissions by 2050, a ALTA-ICF publication suggests that Latin America and the Caribbean may hold an underappreciated asset in the global decarbonization effort: carbon markets.
While much of the discussion surrounding aviation sustainability focuses on Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) and fleet modernization, the report argues that the region’s natural capital could position it as a major supplier of carbon credits in the decades ahead. If supported by appropriate regulatory frameworks and credible project development, carbon markets could become an important component of the aviation industry’s transition strategy.
A region with significant natural assets
According to the study, Latin America and the Caribbean account for only 6.7% of global CO₂ emissions. At the same time, the region possesses some of the world’s most extensive natural ecosystems, including tropical forests, wetlands and biodiversity-rich landscapes capable of supporting large-scale nature-based carbon projects.
This combination creates a distinctive position within the global decarbonization landscape. Rather than relying exclusively on technology-based solutions, the region may also benefit from its capacity to generate carbon credits through conservation, restoration and sustainable land-use initiatives.
For ALTA, this represents a potential competitive advantage that deserves greater attention in discussions about aviation’s pathway to net zero.
Growing momentum in carbon credit markets
The report highlights recent growth in carbon credit issuance worldwide.
Between 2020 and 2024, the global supply of carbon credits expanded by 23%, reflecting increasing interest from governments, corporations and industries seeking mechanisms to address residual emissions. Carbon markets have become an increasingly important part of broader climate strategies, particularly for sectors where complete emissions elimination remains technologically or economically challenging.
Aviation falls into that category. Although airlines continue to invest in fleet renewal, operational efficiency and SAF, the study notes that carbon markets are expected to remain part of the overall mix of solutions required to achieve long-term emissions objectives.
A potential 25% share of the global market
One of the report’s most notable projections concerns the future role of Latin America and the Caribbean in carbon credit generation.
ALTA estimates that the region could account for approximately 25% of the global carbon credit market by 2050 through nature-based solutions. Such a position would give the region a significant role in supporting global decarbonization efforts while potentially creating new economic opportunities linked to environmental assets.
For aviation stakeholders, this could provide access to emissions reduction mechanisms that are geographically closer and potentially better aligned with regional development priorities.
The finding also reinforces the report’s broader argument that Latin America and the Caribbean should not simply import decarbonization models developed elsewhere, but rather build strategies that leverage their own structural strengths.
The challenge of credibility and regulation
The study also cautions that realizing this potential will require more than natural resources alone.
ALTA identifies regulatory standardization and project credibility as critical challenges for the development of effective carbon markets. Investors, airlines and international buyers increasingly demand transparent methodologies, robust verification processes and clear governance frameworks to ensure that carbon credits deliver measurable climate benefits.
Without these safeguards, market confidence could be weakened, limiting the ability of regional projects to attract long-term investment.
The report therefore argues that public authorities, environmental organizations, financial institutions and private-sector stakeholders will all have a role to play in strengthening the credibility of future carbon market initiatives.
Beyond offsets: a strategic regional opportunity
The ALTA-ICF study does not present carbon markets as a standalone solution to aviation decarbonization. Instead, it positions them alongside fleet modernization, operational efficiency improvements and SAF deployment as part of a broader portfolio of actions.
However, the report suggests that carbon markets offer something that few other solutions can provide: a pathway that aligns emissions reduction objectives with the region’s natural and economic characteristics.
As the aviation sector works toward net-zero emissions by 2050, Latin America and the Caribbean may find that one of their strongest advantages lies not only in aircraft technology or fuel innovation, but also in the ecosystems that have long defined the region itself.
