Scheduled airline seat capacity in the Caribbean is down 1.6% year on year in October 2026, a reduction of around 56,000 seats, according to UK-based aviation data provider OAG. Global scheduled capacity rises 1.6% over the same period, to 535.1 million seats in October 2026.
Source: OAG, Global aviation market briefing, October 2026.
The Caribbean is one of five regions where airlines have scheduled fewer seats in October 2026 than in October 2025, according to OAG, alongside the Middle East, South Asia, the Southwest Pacific and Central America. The Middle East records the steepest decline among these regions, down 1.9 million seats or 7.8%. It is also the only contracting region for which OAG offers an explanation, citing continuing instability in the region.
With 3.5 million scheduled seats in October 2026, the Caribbean is the smallest of the five contracting regions by volume and records the lowest absolute decline, according to OAG. Global growth in October 2026 is led by North East Asia, up 2.8 million seats, and North America, up 2.5 million seats or 2.2%.
A Summer Low, Then a Near-Stable September
Caribbean seat capacity was down 4.2% year on year in July 2026, around 200,000 fewer seats, according to OAG. The Caribbean recorded the second-largest regional decline that month after the Middle East, while global capacity rose 1.5%.
Caribbean seat capacity fell 4.6% year on year in August 2026, according to OAG data reported by industry publication ITIJ. Global scheduled capacity rose 2.6% in August 2026, an increase of 14.2 million seats.
Caribbean seat capacity was 0.3% below the previous year in September 2026, a difference of around 9,000 seats, according to OAG data reported by Money Tourism. In the same month, global capacity reached 525.1 million seats, up 2.6% year on year.
| Month (2026) | Caribbean, year on year | Global, year on year |
|---|---|---|
| July | −4.2% | +1.5% |
| August | −4.6% | +2.6% |
| September | −0.3% | +2.6% |
| October | −1.6% | +1.6% |
The October 2026 decline of 1.6% in Caribbean seat capacity is smaller than the reductions recorded in July and August 2026, but wider than in September 2026. Based on OAG figures, the Caribbean has remained below 2025 capacity levels in each month from July to October 2026.
Central America Also Below Last Year
Central America is the other part of Latin America and the Caribbean among the regions where scheduled capacity is below 2025 levels. According to OAG, Central American capacity is down 1.2% in October 2026, or 135,000 seats, to 11.4 million seats. Central America recorded the same rate of decline in September 2026, with 129,000 fewer seats than a year earlier.
The Caribbean and Central American declines contrast with the wider Latin American market. OAG counted 46.9 million scheduled seats across Latin America in September 2026, up 2.3% year on year, with growth concentrated in domestic markets, as LATITUDE15 reported in September 2026.
Mixed Signals Across the Americas in October 2026
Other OAG indicators for October 2026 show uneven trends across the Americas. Mexico’s domestic market is down 3.3% year on year in October 2026, one of three contracting markets among the world’s ten largest domestic markets, alongside Australia and India, according to OAG.
Mexico–United States remains the world’s second-largest international country pair in October 2026, with 3.64 million scheduled seats, according to OAG. Capacity on the Mexico–United States market is up 0.6% year on year.
LATAM Airlines Group records one of the strongest increases in international capacity among the world’s largest carriers in October 2026. According to OAG, LATAM Airlines Group’s international available seat kilometres (ASKs) are up 11.3% year on year, the third-fastest growth among the top 20 airlines by international ASKs. LATAM Airlines Group also operates 52,993 flights in October 2026, up 4.4%.
What the OAG Data Measure
OAG’s regional figures reflect scheduled seat capacity to, from and within each region, not the number of passengers carried. A reduction in scheduled seats in the Caribbean does not on its own indicate a change in travel demand, and OAG has not commented on the factors behind the Caribbean figures.
The northern winter scheduling season began in late October 2026. In a September 2026 webinar, OAG said global winter capacity looked flat to declining year on year, but that this position was likely to improve as the season approached. OAG’s November 2026 figures will provide the first full-month view of winter schedules in the Caribbean.
FAQ
How much did Caribbean airline capacity change in October 2026?
According to OAG, scheduled seat capacity in the Caribbean fell 1.6% year on year in October 2026, around 56,000 seats, to 3.5 million seats.
Which regions had less airline capacity in October 2026 than a year earlier?
According to OAG, the Middle East (−7.8%), the Caribbean (−1.6%), the Southwest Pacific (−1.4%), South Asia (−1.2%) and Central America (−1.2%).
Do the OAG figures measure Caribbean passenger traffic?
No. They measure scheduled seat capacity, not passengers carried.
