In 2025, global air cargo demonstrated its adaptability within a still unstable economic and commercial environment. Volumes reached a record high, driven by robust e-commerce, the reorganization of supply chains, and the increasing demand for rapid transport solutions for high-value goods. However, behind this overall performance, regional dynamics diverge sharply. In Latin America and the Caribbean, growth is present, but it is accompanied by structural tensions that challenge the operational choices of industry players.
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In brief:
- In 2025, global air cargo reached record volumes, driven by e-commerce and the reorganization of supply chains, but within a context of market normalization.
- In Latin America and the Caribbean, demand grew throughout the year, yet showed signs of fragility by year-end, with capacity increasing faster than transported volumes.
- In an environment of global corridor reconfiguration, the performance of regional players now relies on precise trade-offs regarding capacity, networks, and cargo specialization.
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A Solid Global Market, But Entering a Normalization Phase
The 2025 figures primarily reflect a return to balance. Global air cargo demand increased by 3.4% over the year, while capacity grew by 3.7%. The gap remains small, indicating that the market is still absorbing additional supply without recreating the extreme imbalances observed during the post-Covid period.
This dynamic marks a break from years of exceptional catch-up. Air cargo is no longer driven by an exogenous shock, but by more classic structural factors: international trade, cross-border e-commerce, and logistical needs linked to the fragmentation of production chains.
Yields continue their downward adjustment, with an annual decline limited to 1.5%. This correction remains contained and, above all, very relative, as yields largely remain above 2019 levels.
For operators, the signal is clear: the market is not collapsing, but it now demands more refined management of capacities and networks.
Latin America and the Caribbean: Real Annual Growth, But Weakened
In this generally stable global context, Latin America and the Caribbean show an annual demand increase of 2.3% in 2025. This figure, taken in isolation, confirms that the region remains integrated into global flows and still benefits from certain structural drivers, particularly the export of agricultural, pharmaceutical, or time-sensitive products.
However, the intra-annual trajectory is more contrasted. After a relatively dynamic first half, the second half of the year proved significantly more challenging. In December, the region recorded a marked decline in demand, even as most other areas continued their progress. This year-end underperformance is not anecdotal: it highlights increased vulnerability to the reconfiguration of international flows.
At the same time, capacity continues to grow at a faster rate than demand. As a result, load factors are declining, falling to levels significantly below the global average. For airlines and cargo operators in the region, the issue is therefore not one of gross growth, but rather the economic sustainability of operations.
Capacity and Profitability: The Core of Operator Trade-offs
This divergence between supply and demand places Latin American and Caribbean players in a more complex equation. In a now normalized global market, simply increasing capacity no longer guarantees value creation. On the contrary, it can increase pressure on margins when volumes do not follow.
The debate thus shifts towards optimal resource allocation. The gradual return of passenger capacities restores importance to belly cargo, which captures a growing share of marginal demand. Freighters, still central to international freight, see their deployment become more selective, depending on corridors and yield prospects.
For airlines in the region, these developments imply structural choices: adjusting frequencies, targeting the most resilient flows, strengthening interregional partnerships, or even repositioning themselves in niche segments where time sensitivity outweighs cost. Air cargo ceases to be a mere ancillary volume; it becomes a strategic lever in its own right.
Reconfiguration of Global Corridors: A Less Favorable Environment
This pressure is also explained by the rapid transformation of major air trade routes. In 2025, global flows are gradually shifting towards corridors deemed more resilient, particularly between Europe and Asia, or within the Asian continent itself. Conversely, some historically dominant routes are losing ground due to the combined effect of trade tensions, tariff policies, and the redefinition of supply chains.
For Latin America and the Caribbean, this reconfiguration means a relative loss of centrality in major intercontinental flows. The region is not marginalized, but it must contend with an environment where competition between corridors is stronger and where reliance on a few key routes becomes a risk factor.
In this context, specialization is becoming increasingly important. Perishable goods, pharmaceutical cargo, regional express, targeted e-commerce: these are all segments where air cargo retains a strong comparative advantage and where value is not solely based on volumes.
2026: A Year of Discipline More Than Expansion
The outlook for 2026 confirms this assessment. Global air cargo growth is expected to slow slightly, in line with long-term historical trends. Geopolitical and commercial uncertainties will continue to weigh on trade, reinforcing the importance of network flexibility and responsiveness.
For players in these regions, the challenge is not to mechanically follow global growth, but to make clear choices. Capacity discipline, corridor targeting, adaptation of the cargo mix, logistics partnerships: this is where performance will be determined.
Air cargo remains an indispensable pillar of global supply chains. But in a now balanced market, value creation relies less on expansion than on the quality of strategic decisions. For operators in the region, 2025 undoubtedly marks the end of an adjustment phase and the beginning of a cycle where strategy will take precedence over volume.
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Data source: IATA.org / Press Release No: 4 Date: 29 January 2026
