WAGA 2026: Aviation safety is shifting from reactive to predictive risk management

As aviation systems become more digital and interconnected, safety management is increasingly moving beyond learning from incidents after they occur. At WAGA 2026 in Lima, EASA’s Maria Rueda outlined a more proactive approach built around broader operational data, predictive risk identification and stronger cooperation across the aviation system.

LIMA, PERU — Aviation safety has traditionally relied heavily on lessons learned after accidents and incidents. But increasingly interconnected aircraft, airports and air traffic systems are pushing regulators and operators toward identifying risks before they develop into operational events.

That was one of the central messages delivered at WAGA 2026 by Maria Rueda, Director Safety Management, Sustainability and Global Outreach at the European Union Aviation Safety Agency (EASA), during a session focused on keeping aviation safe in a changing operating environment.

Rueda described an aviation system facing a wider mix of risks, from increasingly interconnected digital technology and cybersecurity threats to climate change and infrastructure changes associated with aviation’s decarbonization.

Her argument, however, went beyond identifying new threats. The more fundamental shift is in how safety risks themselves are identified and managed.

Aviation safety can no longer remain primarily reactive

Traditional aviation safety management has often relied on examining what went wrong and preventing a similar event from happening again.

“Traditionally, we have had a fairly reactive risk system: there is an accident, we learn from it and try to fix it,” Rueda said in comments translated from Spanish at WAGA 2026.

EASA is moving toward a more proactive approach that seeks to identify emerging risks earlier, according to Rueda.

That involves stronger interaction between regulators, the aviation industry and national aviation authorities, as well as greater information sharing to identify, assess and mitigate risks before they result in an accident or serious operational disruption.

The change reflects the increasing complexity of aviation itself.

Rueda described aircraft, airports and air traffic services as parts of an interconnected “system of systems.” Greater digitalization can deliver operational benefits, but it can also create new dependencies and vulnerabilities that make cooperation increasingly important.

More data is making risk identification predictive

A key part of that transition is access to a broader range of operational information.

Rueda said EASA previously relied heavily on reported occurrences from operators and airports. Its safety risk management process can now draw on additional sources including Flight Data Monitoring, airport information and data from air navigation service providers.

“With all this information, what we can do is become more predictive in our risk identification,” Rueda said, translated from Spanish.

EASA is also looking at potential risk simulations and at gaps in reporting, recognizing that not every safety-relevant event is necessarily captured through traditional occurrence reporting.

The objective is not to predict individual accidents. It is to identify patterns, vulnerabilities and emerging safety issues earlier enough for operators and regulators to act before those risks escalate.

The challenge is already visible in the Caribbean

The relevance of that approach extends beyond Europe.

In 2025, the ICAO North American, Central American and Caribbean Regional Office launched a cybersecurity assistance pilot involving Trinidad and Tobago and COCESNA, the Central American Corporation for Air Navigation Services.

ICAO said the initiative responded to requests from Caribbean States that had modernized their air navigation systems but still lacked sufficiently robust cyber-protection mechanisms. The pilot is intended to help inform a broader project covering other States in the CAR Region.

ICAO’s recommendations include applying cyber-risk management methodologies to critical systems, strengthening training and simulations for air navigation personnel and increasing regional cooperation.

For airports and aviation authorities across the Caribbean, that initiative illustrates how increased digitalization is making cybersecurity part of operational resilience rather than simply an information-technology concern.

AI can support safety, but it does not replace judgement

Artificial intelligence is another part of the changing safety environment.

Rueda said EASA is developing guidance examining how AI can be introduced safely into aviation operations, including applications involving safety-critical systems.

The regulatory approach, she said, should remain proportional and demonstrate a net safety benefit rather than regulating every application in the same way.

But predictive safety does not mean replacing human judgement with algorithms.

Later in her WAGA 2026 intervention, Rueda emphasized that data alone is insufficient. Safety management also requires awareness, operational context and professional judgement when determining which risks require priority action.

AI can therefore support the identification and processing of safety information, but the interpretation of that information remains an essential part of the process.

Cyber resilience is becoming an airport operational issue

The regional relevance of these risks was also visible at WAGA 2026 itself.

ACI-LAC’s 2026 Young Professional Award recognized a project developed by Gabriel Marcos de Morais Silva, Operations Coordinator at Recife International Airport in Brazil, focused specifically on airport resilience during a cyberattack.

Titled “Beyond Recovery – A Practical Operational Resilience Plan for a Cyberattack,” the project proposes a structured response designed to keep airport operations safe, coordinated and passenger-focused during a digital outage. It connects technology, operational processes and people as part of the resilience strategy.

The Recife initiative provides a practical counterpart to Rueda’s wider message in Lima: as airport operations become increasingly digital, safety and resilience depend not only on preventing disruptions but also on preparing for how the system will operate when technology fails.

For airports across Latin America and the Caribbean, the shift toward predictive safety is therefore becoming more than a regulatory discussion.

As airport systems, aircraft and air navigation services become increasingly interconnected, the ability to identify vulnerabilities early, share information across organizations and prepare for emerging risks is becoming part of day-to-day operational resilience.

Source: Maria Rueda’s intervention at WAGA 2026 in Lima

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